Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. (Source). The author says right at the beginning in his 20+ page preface that the book is intentionally left unstructured so that it may resemble the flow of his thoughts as and when they popped up. In multiple ways. A terrific book to get us start thinking about probabilities in life. There’s some overlap across the books — but you'll likely find the repetition helpful in retaining the content better. Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and (mostly) practical problems with probability. Nietzsche was certainly on to something; it’s hard to av. He merely invents parables to expound on his points. Because of hindsight bias and survivorship bias, in particular, we tend to forget the many who fail, remember the few who succeed, and then create reasons and patterns for their success even though it was largely random. Amazon配送商品ならFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)が通常配送無料。更にAmazonならポイント還元本が多数。Taleb, Nassim Nicholas作品ほか、お急ぎ便対象商品は当日お届けも About: author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty (Skin In the Game, Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes), a (so far) 5-volume Amazon and B&N (Source), Darvin Kurniawan "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and basically the others in the series like "Fooled by Randomness" and "Antifragile") are also my favourites. He claims that with the number of i. This book is a lot of painful reading for little reward, as there was nothing truly remarkable or revelatory about Taleb's insights. I really enjoyed Fooled by Randomness, but thought that the potshots taken at The Millionaire Next Door were a bit odd. This is one of the best books I have ever read. Even if The Millionaire’s methodology didn’t meet statistical rigor and suffered from selection bias, the behavior of the various subjects interviewed matched the pattern of Taleb’s hypothetical Manhattan dentist who is probabilistically richer than any lottery winner. You can read this book to start building a "latticework of mental models in your head". External-identifier urn:asin:0812975219 urn:oclc August 23rd 2005 These books explained it well, about the role of chance/probability and randomness, in our lives. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. His main idea is that probability is not mere computation of the odds - it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and developing methods for dealing with our ignorance. Mild success can be explainable by skills and hard work, but wild success is usually attributable to variance and luck. But he neither uses actual events or statistics. Nassim Taleb's book is highly idiosyncratic and personal, which is both what lends it a lot of its interest and what occasionally makes it irritating. But, all that’s just literary style -- and apparently a very popular one, judging by the sales of the book. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. The result is a book on how randomness guides our lives much more than we want to belive. by Random House Trade Paperbacks, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets— Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. I assigned this to a class, with a warning that Taleb can be an insufferable, arrogant, jerk; but he was not going to be the last one they deal with so they have to get past that. Who would I recommend the Fooled By Randomness summary to? Nassim Nicholas Taleb-veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan -has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. But he neither uses actual events or statistics. I used [this book] is a class I taught on the economics of uncertainty. "Expect the unexpected" -- an aphorism that almost completely summarises the book. May 2002 Fooled by randomness - The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life If you watch a steam engine, you may not know how it works but you can soon get a fairly good idea of its behaviour, and you can predict its future behaviour accurately. And thus people get fooled by randomness and create theories of success. Fooled by Randomness is ranked in the following categories: If you like Fooled by Randomness, check out these similar top-rated books: And throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. Refresh and try again. (Source), Howard Marks Really about how much randomness there is in our world. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan –has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette - and calling it by some alternative “low risk” game.”. In multiple ways. This book is written by a person who is both a thinker and a doer, a combination that should be strived for by everyone. They're stupid'. Yeah, you see. I've finally read this book because a friend whose insights I give some weight to respects Taleb's ideas. Again, I'm astounded by the quality of Taleb's writing. He continues down this train of thought until he reaches the conclusion that the ultimate success and failure of some people can primarily be explained by luck. It has everything in a book that I yearn for....interesting ideas...some of which I don't grasp because hey are too clever for me...a smug narrator who seemingly knows more than everyone else...and a well-written and pleasing style. Ironic for a man who criticises the normative dimensions of economics, Taleb certainly pushes a strong view of the world. Most of what can be said of this book has already been said by other reviewers on GoodReads, so I will just briefly recap here: he is incredibly unlikeable, and infuses the book with anecdote and a general disdain for most of humanity, while exemplifying many of the characteristics he rails against. Renowned statistician George Box once said, “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The author of, You can't learn anything from this book; it's just a rant. Much of the anecdote in the book could have been removed to make way for the real substance of the book. He seems to go around in circles repeating his ideas and thoughts, coming back to the same points, pulling in unrelated anecdotes while already inside one, leaving thoughts hanging without any form of closure, and generally ensuring you end up doing exactly what he says you s. The author says right at the beginning in his 20+ page preface that the book is intentionally left unstructured so that it may resemble the flow of his thoughts as and when they popped up. The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Nassim Nicholas Taleb | 4.18 | 48,585 ratings and reviews. Updated editions were released a few years later. He merely invents parables to expound on his points. And that I believe is the problem. The author's message is an incessant din of, 'I'm smart. Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. Like When Breath Becomes Air, it’s about a subject that I’m not particularly interested in (statistics and how they play out in daily life) and, like The Age of Federalism or The Bell Curve, it is quite dense. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. He discusses Antifragility throughout history, up to our current economic situation, and even in our personal situations. But, it does get kind of tiresome to be told for the 5th or 10th time how unimpressed by wealth he is. The book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2001. Learn from 48,585 book reviews of Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. (Source), Ola Olusoga Like Charlie Munger once said: “I’ve long believed that a certain system - which almost any intelligent person can learn - works way better than the systems most people use [to understand the world]. Success of some people is nothing but pure luck. Just as multiple factors shape every system, multiple mental models from a variety of disciplines are necessary to understand that system". This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life. And it gets worse – like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: “Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do”, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probably too stupid to know (or deserve) any better. The 21 year old, who just moved out from home, and spends a lot of her time deliberating what to wear and eat, the 59 year old writer, who’s not sure whether the next page is even worth writing, and anyone who has someone with a bad illness in their family. Renowned statistician George Box once said, All models are wrong, but some are useful. Probabilities are misconstrued as certainties. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. Access-restricted-item true Addeddate 2014-06-05 17:38:38.475324 Bookplateleaf 0008 Boxid IA1611107 Camera Canon EOS 5D Mark II City New York Edition 2nd ed., updated. His theory is both scientific and poetic, his insights are always useful and reflect what I often experience in my life...the one thing that really impressed me in this book, however, was his ability to tell a great story. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. Nietzsche was certainly on to something; it’s hard to avoid being offended by your betters. At times the logic and flow is so jumpy and flawed that I thought there was something wrong with my copy. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times best-selling author of The Black Swan - has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. We’d love your help. I suspect that the same people who find Taleb’s arrogance off-putting are the people who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition. Is our success or failure really a reflection of our own abilities? And, with that system, things gradually fit together in a way that enhances cognition. But, from reading their reports, I think that it paid off. I have textbooks that I can assign that teaches methods of measuring uncertainty, Fooled by Randomness helped my students learn to think about risk, and that makes it a success in their (and mine) eyes. James Altucher Founder/StockPickr And throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”.And throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. Let us know what’s wrong with this preview of, Published Who should I read? It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to I don’t remember who suggested reading this unusual “trading book” to me but whoever that was, I am sincerely thankful to that person. A few insights from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Taleb has quickly become one of my favorite writers, possibly my favorite thinker. Personally, my eyes glaze over when I read about trading, and I much prefer books like The Drunkard's Walk, which illustrates many of the same (but also many more) concepts. Fooled By Randomness (Review & Summary) Posted on November 12, 2020 by Paul Severe The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets. everyone. The author of Fooled by Randomness is all over the first part of this statement, but apparently doesnt consider it part of his job as an iconoclast to say anything about the second. I am suspicious of new gurus and of intellectual fads, especially when the word 'market' is factored in. But, it does get kind of tiresome to be told for the 5th or 10th time how unimpressed by wealth he is. This is the best book I have read all year, closely followed by his other book, The Black Swan. Fooled by Randomness – Review I love Taleb’s irreverent and biting style. Taleb is a successful trader who has read poetry, history, psychology and many other subjects quite extensively. I was happy to read the section on Tversky and Kahneman, but I find their work infinitely more interesting and readable than his summary, and you are spared the normative commentary. The author continually pontificates that random events happen in life. Randomness, chance, and luck influence our lives and our work more than we realize. Like Charlie Munger once said: “I’ve long believed that a certain system - which almost any intelligent person can learn - works way better than the systems most people use [to understand the world]. Taleb set the bar with this book, came close with Black Swan, but seemed to lose mojo with his more recent works; I need to move on. The author’s most famous exclamation is that the 40 years of investment success experienced by Warren Buffett, "may be by chance." Ranked #3 in Business Statistics, Ranked #4 in Macroeconomics — see more rankings. (Source), Anant Jain The five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. All in all, I am really puzzled by the popularity of this book, and I would strongly recommend against bothering with this one. This is a book by a trader with an intellectual streak -- although he might say he’s an intellectual with a trading streak. The author continually pontificates that random events happen in life. In fact, he is clearly impresse. Cliches exist for a reason, but 196 pages later I feel the point has been well made. '", … Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. The concepts in this book are invaluable for those developing critical thinking skills. 
, “Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost.”, “Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. This is the first book of INCERTO, the most polite, the simplest, and the best to start. When Taleb does delve into intriguing concepts, I was frustrated with the fact that he explained them poorly and incompletely, and quickly moved on to another topic. His insights will not be news to anyone who has read even a little. Recommended Summary: The Swedish Investor – Fooled By Randomness (By Nassim Taleb) Author: Nassim Taleb is the original, idiosyncratic mind behind Fooled by Randomness , The Black Swan , and Antifragile , a bestselling series of books on the nature of complexity, randomness, and a world where rare events dominate the landscape. See 1 question about Fooled by Randomness…, Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Incorrect Page Count: ISBN13: 9781400067930, Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson Shares His Reading Recommendations. He seems to go around in circles repeating his ideas and thoughts, coming back to the same points, pulling in unrelated anecdotes while already inside one, leaving thoughts hanging without any form of closure, and generally ensuring you end up doing exactly what he says you shouldn't be doing: making sense of random noise. Overall, he does not seem like a likeable man, and in fact is probably proud of that fact. I am just giving you insights on what you will read from this book. Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is about, “The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.” So here’s what you’re in for: With Fooled by Randomness you get an explicit look at luck; and specifically, how we perceive it in our personal and professional lives. I suspect that the same people who find Taleb’s arrogance off-putting are the people who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition. And because of that effectiveness (many of my students stated they never read anything book length voluntarily), the book keeps the readers attention (if the tone does not drive them away!) I was not disappointed. These books explained it well, about the role of chance/probability and randomness, in our lives. In fact, he is clearly impressed by wealth, but counteracts it by stressing how little he works, how much time he devotes to intellectual pursuits and how much smarter he is than the typical wealthy person. (Source), Art De Vany I used [this book] is a class I taught on the economics of uncertainty. Review of and thoughs about “Fooled by Randomness” (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) Emil O. W. Kirkegaard 6. I assigned this to a class, with a warning that Taleb can be an insufferable, arrogant, jerk; but he was not going to be the last one they deal with so they have to get past that. I’ve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do. I don't really disagree with his criticisms of MBAs, economists, traders, journalists, etc., but I also don't think anything he says is especially revealing of insightful for most of us who aren't involved in the trading world. There’s some overlap across the books — but you'll likely find the repetition helpful in retaining the content better. Overall, he does not seem like a likeable man, and in fact is probably proud of that fact. And it gets worse – like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: “Work is the refuge of people who have nothing better to do”, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probab. He claims that with the number of investors, it was a statistical certainty that one would obtain Buffett’s success. It explained things that I sort of felt existed but unable to articulate. The attitude and tone he takes has a purpose, to deliver a message in three parts: we are not good at dealing with uncertainty, we don't think about uncertainty right because we tend to only see what actually happened instead of considering all the possibilities, and the way to get past this is to consider the process and be assured that it would have handled bad news well. On Goodreads, it has a rating of 4.07 from 1,968 reviews. Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. The attitude and tone he takes has a purpose, to deliver a message in three parts: we are not good at dealing with uncertainty, we don't think about uncertainty right because we tend to only see what actually happened instead of considering all the possibilitie. The five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. I’ve come to realize that some people find Nassim Taleb’s arrogance quite repugnant, but, personally, I find it rather charming. Introduction Fooled by Randomness is the sort of book that I normally wouldn’t read. And that I believe is the problem. For more than a decade, Neil deGrasse Tyson, the world-renowned astrophysicist and host of the popular radio and Emmy-nominated... To see what your friends thought of this book, Yeah, you see. "The book was selected by Fortune as one of the 75 'Smartest Books of All Time. One of my business school professors raved about this book. We've comprehensively compiled reviews of Fooled by Randomness from the world's leading experts. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. And, with that system, things gradually fit together in a way that enhances cognition. On Amazon, the book has a rating of 4.3, rated by 1,124 people, with 62% of reviewers giving 5 stars. That podcast changed my life A nice thesis (humans are unable to correctly assess risk and probability and therefore fall into all kinds of traps) wrapped in pompous and befuddled writing. Using his trademark aphoristic bent, Friedrich Nietzsche wrote: “Arrogance in persons of merit affronts us more than arrogance in those without merit: merit itself is an affront”. Most of what can be said of this book has already been said by other reviewers on GoodReads, so I will just briefly recap here: he is incredibly unlikeable, and infuses the book with anecdote and a general disdain for most of humanity, while exemplifying many of the characteristics he rails against. It was first published in 2001. Having run into Nassim Taleb's later work "The Black Swan", last year (see review), I choose the new edition of his earlier contribution, "Fooled by Randomness" as one summer 2012's special reads. He is not afraid of telling it how it is even when he touches big names (Bill Gates, Soros and Warren Buffet just to name a few). Part II would have been pretty good if I hadn't read a lot of other books on the topics, and for those who are interested in economic markets, I think this would interest you if you can move past the constant interjections of Taleb's personal philosophy. He continues down this train of thought until he reaches the conclusion that the ultimate success and failure of some people can primarily be explained by luck. I'm not certain if it was this book I read or, [ at least at first, after a few repetitions it starts to get a bit stale, Using his trademark aphoristic bent, Friedrich Nietzsche wrote: “Arrogance in persons of merit affronts us more than arrogance in those without merit: merit itself is an affront”. Malcolm Gladwell Writer & JournalistRecommends this book, Ev Williams Co-Founder/Twitter, CEO/MediumRecommends this book, James Altucher Founder/StockPickrAnd throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life. This book is a lot of painful reading for little reward, as there was nothing truly remarkable or revelatory about Taleb's insights. What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. Fooled by Randomness – Book Review The past decade has witnessed the release of many books about risk management and assessment, but none have managed to illustrate the role that random events play in life and markets as well as Nissim Nicholas Taleb’s latest work. With recommendations from Malcolm Gladwell, and Ev Williams. Welcome back. I love the theses that he has in the book, but jesus christ, this is horribly written. His insights will not be news to anyone who has read even a little bit about statistics, decision making under uncertainty, and behavioural economics. The author’s most famous exclamation is that the 40 years of investment success experienced by Warren Buffett, "may be by chance." I expected to get an entertaining and informative investment professional's take on how our irrational tendencies keep us from applying basic probabilities that would help us make better decisions. I found Once I read it I could never look at the world the same again, nor could I take my old assumptions for granted. It remains a fascinating book nonetheless. Fooled by Randomness is one of that select group of books that changes your mind entirely. Start by marking “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets” as Want to Read: Error rating book. Really about how much randomness there is in our world. "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and basically the others in the series like "Fooled by Randomness" and "Antifragile") are also my favourites. I’ve come to realize that some people find Nassim Taleb’s arrogance quite repugnant, but, personally, I find it rather charming. and is memorable. Just as multiple factors shape every system, multiple mental models from a variety of disciplines are necessary to understand that system". It explained things that I sort of felt existed but unable to articulate. What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. I’ve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Amazon.es: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: Libros en idiomas extranjeros Selecciona Tus Preferencias de Cookies Utilizamos cookies y herramientas similares para mejorar tu experiencia de compra, prestar nuestros servicios, entender cómo los utilizas para poder mejorarlos, y para mostrarte anuncios. I feel like I should read the remaining four(at least for now) again, and I'd love to. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. He discusses Antifragility throughout history, up to our current economic situation, and even in our personal situations. They complain about the tone. Just a moment while we sign you in to your Goodreads account. This is a book by a trader with an intellectual streak -- although he might say he’s an intellectual with a trading streak. I've resisted reading Taleb for reasons he might approve of. That's something I had forgotten about. Nassim Taleb's book is highly idiosyncratic and personal, which is both what lends it a lot of its interest and what occasionally makes it irritating. That podcast changed my life They complain about the tone. You can read this book to start building a "latticework of mental models in your head". - This is precisely the belief of Nassim Taleb who goes on and on and on and on to prove it throughout the book. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. thought that the book was supposed to be about, but you have to make it through 130 pages of arrogance and badly composed narrative. One sentence review: Expect the unexpected. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan –has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. Part II is markedly better than Part I because he finally delves into what I (foolishly?) Probably not. If you know of a more profound book of a similar nature, i'd appreciate your recommendations. With the meltdown in the world financial system I felt drawn to reading Taleb's Fooled by Randomness written before the meltdown but in a way predicting it. If you're really interested in randomness, I would recommend The Drunkard's Walk. Some people get elated when the find some kind of pattern in randomness, when there is none. But, from reading their reports, I think that it paid off. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break.

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